How does climate change influence extreme weather?
Hurricane Harvey devastated the Houston area when it stalled over southeastern Texas in August 2017. In the weeks that followed, Hurricane Irma traveled up the mainland of Florida, and Hurricane Maria pummeled Puerto Rico. The year 2017 would become the most expensive hurricane season on record.
For decades, climate researchers using computer models have predicted that the warming ocean and atmosphere would likely increase the intensity of such natural disasters. More recently, though, high-resolution datasets and more sophisticated models have allowed researchers to find the fingerprint of climate change in individual weather events. Such analyses are exceedingly tricky, and not all experts the field agree on the best approach. But in recent years, a growing subfield of “attribution” research has produced results that are increasingly compelling—and increasingly concerning. Such work not only investigates the causes of past events but could potentially help improve forecasting for future ones.
Image: NASA